Research note · September 25, 2026 · 13:33 UTC

October’s named 25 bp-hike rows reach 67% on both direct pages

Answer. At 13:33 UTC on September 25, the direct Kalshi October event page displayed 67% for “Hike 25bps” and 33% for “Fed maintains rate.” The direct Polymarket October contract displayed 67% for a 25 bp increase and 33% for no change. Since the pool’s 19:06 UTC access on September 24, Kalshi’s named hike row rose 2 percentage points and Polymarket’s rose 1 point. These are separate event-contract readings, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.

Both named leads are 34 points

Kalshi’s named hike row leads its named maintain-rate row by 34 points. Its page also displayed 1% for “Hike >25bps” and indicated two more outcomes. Polymarket’s named 25 bp-increase row leads no change by 34 points; smaller outcomes appear separately and displayed rows can be rounded. The pool does not derive a full distribution from those surfaces.

The comparison shows movement, not a cause

The readings are two pool access times, about 18 hours apart, rather than a continuous price record. The pool did not capture a row immediately before and after an official release or Fed policy communication. It does not assign the moves to a release, a speech, or a trade.

CME remains a separate missing comparison

CME FedWatch says its probabilities are implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live October outcome grid was still unreadable in this check. The pool shows no current CME percentage and no spread against either event contract.

Next scheduled checkpoints

The BLS calendar lists August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data for September 29 at 10:00 ET and the September Employment Situation for October 2 at 08:30 ET. The BEA schedule lists August Personal Income and Outlays for September 30 at 08:30 ET. These are future information times, not explanations for the current rows.