Research note · September 26, 2026 · 19:03 UTC
Kalshi holds its 64% October hike heading; Polymarket could not be rechecked
Answer. At 19:03 UTC on September 26, the Kalshi October event page showed 64% for “Hike 25bps” and 36% for “Fed maintains rate” in its named Chance headings. Those named headings matched the pool’s 13:37 UTC access. The direct Polymarket October page showed a U.S. location gate at this access and no outcome rows. Its last directly verified reading was 65% for a 25 bp increase and 34% for no change at 13:37 UTC. These are separate event-contract observations, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.
Kalshi did not change in this recheck
Kalshi also displayed 2% for “Hike >25bps” and indicated two more outcomes. The pool reports the named headings only and does not construct a full distribution. Compared with the pool’s 19:06 UTC September 25 access, the named 25 bp-hike heading was 35 points higher and the named maintain-rate heading was 33 points lower. The two checks do not explain the change.
Polymarket is a current access gap
The direct page said that trading is blocked in the United States and did not render its contract rows. This is an access limitation, not an observed price move. The 13:37 UTC rows remain the last directly verified Polymarket reading; they are not treated as a 19:03 quote. The pool also excludes Polymarket’s adjacent experimental AI-generated narrative from its observations and explanations.
CME remains a separate missing comparison
CME FedWatch says its probabilities are implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live October outcome grid was unreadable in this check. The pool shows no current CME percentage and no spread against either event contract.
Next scheduled checkpoints
The BLS calendar lists August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data for September 29 at 10:00 ET and the September Employment Situation for October 2 at 08:30 ET. The BEA schedule lists August Personal Income and Outlays for August on September 30 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve lists the September meeting minutes for October 7 and the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. These are future information times, not explanations for the current rows.