Research note · September 26, 2026 · 13:37 UTC
Kalshi’s October hike heading returns to 64%; Polymarket is 65%
Answer. At 13:37 UTC on September 26, the October Kalshi event page showed 64% for “Hike 25bps” and 36% for “Fed maintains rate” in its named Chance headings. The direct Polymarket October contract showed 65% for a 25 bp increase and 34% for no change. Both named hike rows lead on their own pages. These are separate event-contract observations, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.
Kalshi’s named leader reversed again
Since the pool’s 19:06 UTC September 25 access, Kalshi’s named Hike 25bps heading rose 35 percentage points, from 29% to 64%, while its named maintain-rate heading fell 33 points, from 69% to 36%. The named hike heading now leads the named maintain-rate heading by 28 points. The current page also showed Hike >25bps at 2% and indicated two more outcomes, so this note does not construct a full distribution.
Polymarket’s named 25 bp-increase row rose 2 points, from 63% to 65%, while no change fell 3 points, from 37% to 34%. The named hike row leads by 31 points. Smaller outcomes are displayed separately and can be rounded; its experimental AI-generated narrative is excluded from this observation.
The two snapshots do not explain the move
Neither page supplied a separate reliable quote time, so 13:37 UTC is the pool access time. The two checks do not form a continuous record and do not show why either venue moved. The pool did not capture an identified row immediately around an official release or Fed communication, so it assigns no catalyst. A venue difference does not establish a pooled probability, an asset explanation, or a trade.
CME remains a separate missing comparison
CME FedWatch says its probabilities are implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live October outcome grid was still unreadable in this check. The pool shows no current CME percentage and no spread against either event contract.
Next scheduled checkpoints
The BLS calendar lists August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data for September 29 at 10:00 ET and the September Employment Situation for October 2 at 08:30 ET. The BEA schedule lists August Personal Income and Outlays for September 30 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the October 27–28 meeting. These are future information times, not explanations for the current rows.