Fed Decision Market Watch · Research note · September 27, 2026 · 13:35 UTC

October contract rows still favor a 25 bp hike

Question revision 1. What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

Answer. At 13:35 UTC, the direct Kalshi October event page showed 64% for “Hike 25bps” and 35% for “Fed maintains rate” in its named Chance headings. The direct Polymarket October page showed 65% for “25 bps increase” and 34% for “No change.” These are separate event-contract observations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, not a combined forecast.

What changed since the last direct checks

Kalshi’s named hike heading stayed at 64% from the September 26, 19:03 UTC check. Its maintain-rate heading fell from 36% to 35%, a 1-percentage-point change. Polymarket’s 65% and 34% rows matched its last directly verified September 26, 13:37 UTC reading. Its page was location-gated at the intervening evening check. Neither venue provided a reliable separate quote timestamp, so these comparisons use pool access times and say nothing about prices between checks.

What the pages do not show

Kalshi also displayed 1% for “Hike >25bps” and indicated two more outcomes. Its separate Yes price for maintain rate was 36¢, not its 35% Chance heading. Polymarket displayed smaller outcomes separately; its adjacent experimental narrative was not used. The pool does not add rounded rows, derive a residual, or attribute the change to a release or a trade.

CME FedWatch describes probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live October grid was not readable in this check, so no futures-implied figure or cross-measure spread is reported.

Next official checks

The BLS schedule lists August job openings for September 29 at 10:00 ET. The BEA schedule lists August Personal Income and Outlays for September 30 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. These dates give readers a reason to check again; they do not explain today’s contract headings.

Reader scope

An October decision row does not explain a long-term Treasury yield or prescribe a portfolio action. A yield explanation needs a specified yield series, observation window, and competing causes. This note supplies the named contract, outcome, time, and next official checkpoint instead.