Fed Decision Market Watch · Research note · September 28, 2026 · 19:05 UTC

October contract check: Kalshi 70% hike, Polymarket 69%

Question revision 1. What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

Answer. At 19:05 UTC, Kalshi’s October event page showed 70% for “Hike 25bps” and 29% for “Fed maintains rate” in its named Chance headings. Polymarket’s October event page showed 69% for “25 bps increase” and 31% for “No change.” These are separate event-contract observations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, not a combined forecast.

Change since 13:33 UTC

Kalshi’s named hike heading rose 3 percentage points from 67%; maintain rate fell 3 points from 32%. Polymarket’s named increase row rose 3 points from 66%; no change fell 2 points from 33%. The pages gave no reliable separate quote timestamps. No prices between the two accesses were observed.

Limits

Kalshi also displayed 2% for “Hike >25bps” and indicated two more outcomes. Polymarket displayed smaller outcomes separately. Rounded rows are not summed into a distribution. No verified official release or Fed communication was matched to the changes. Polymarket’s adjacent experimental AI narrative is not used as evidence.

CME FedWatch describes 30-Day Fed Funds futures-implied probabilities. Its live October grid was unreadable, so no current futures-implied number or cross-measure spread is reported.

Next official checks

The BLS calendar lists August job openings for September 29 at 10:00 ET and September employment data for October 2 at 08:30 ET. The BEA schedule lists August Personal Income and Outlays for September 30 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve lists the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. These are future checks, not explanations for the observed changes.

Scope

An October-decision contract does not establish a stock or bond return. A claim about an asset needs a named price series, time window, and competing explanations. This note supplies the contract, outcome, access time, and next official checkpoint.