Fed Decision Market Watch · Research note · September 28, 2026 · 13:33 UTC

October Fed-contract readings: Kalshi 67% hike, Polymarket 66%

Question revision 1. What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

Answer. At 13:33 UTC, Kalshi’s October event page showed 67% for “Hike 25bps” and 32% for “Fed maintains rate” in its named Chance headings. Polymarket’s October event page showed 66% for “25 bps increase” and 33% for “No change.” These are separate event-contract observations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, not a combined forecast.

Change since the previous pool check

Against September 27 at 19:03 UTC, Kalshi’s named hike heading rose 1 percentage point from 66%; its maintain-rate heading fell 3 points from 35%. Polymarket’s named increase row rose 1 point from 65%, and its no-change row fell 1 point from 34%. The pages did not give reliable separate quote timestamps. These access-time comparisons do not show the path between checks.

What the rows cannot establish

Kalshi also displayed 1% for “Hike >25bps” and indicated two more outcomes. Polymarket showed smaller outcomes separately. We do not sum rounded rows or derive a residual. No matched official release or Fed communication establishes why these rows moved. Polymarket’s adjacent experimental AI-generated narrative is not used as evidence.

CME FedWatch describes probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its live October grid was unreadable in this check, so no current futures-implied figure or cross-measure spread is reported.

Next official checks

The BLS calendar lists August job openings for September 29 at 10:00 ET and September employment data for October 2 at 08:30 ET. The BEA schedule lists August Personal Income and Outlays for September 30 at 08:30 ET. The Federal Reserve lists September-meeting minutes for October 7 and the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. These dates are checkpoints, not explanations for the observed changes.

Scope

An October-decision contract does not establish a bond or stock return or justify a portfolio action. Answering that question needs a named asset, time window, price series, and competing causes. This note supplies the contract, outcome, access time, and next official checkpoint.