October hold rows overtake 25 bp hike on two event pages

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At September 29, 19:02 UTC, Kalshi’s October event page displayed 52% for “Fed maintains rate” and 46% for “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s October page displayed 51% for “No change” and 48% for “25 bps increase.” Both pages had favored a 25 bp hike at the 13:35 UTC check. These are separate venue readings.

What changed

Kalshi’s named hold heading rose from 30% to 52% and its 25 bp-hike heading fell from 70% to 46%: +22 and −24 percentage points. Polymarket’s no-change row rose from 31% to 51% and its 25 bp-increase row fell from 69% to 48%: +20 and −21 points. These are two snapshots, not a continuous price history.

Kalshi and Polymarket October event-page rows flipped from a 25 bp-hike lead at 13:35 UTC to a hold or no-change lead at 19:02 UTC on September 29, 2026. Source: each venue’s direct event page; times are page access times. — Source: direct Kalshi and Polymarket October event pages, accessed September 29, 2026 at 13:35 and 19:02 UTC. Bars show named rows, not a full distribution.

Official context, not a proven cause

BLS released August JOLTS at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC). It reported job openings little changed at 7.1 million, hires little changed at 5.2 million, and total separations unchanged at 5.1 million. The release fell between the two market-page checks. The observations cannot show whether it caused the reversal or how prices moved between checks.

BEA schedules August Personal Income and Outlays for September 30 at 08:30 ET. BLS schedules the September employment report for October 2 at 08:30 ET. The FOMC meets October 27–28.

Measure limits

Kalshi’s Chance heading is used, not a separate order-entry odds label. Kalshi lists other outcomes and displayed rows are rounded. Polymarket’s previously inspected rules settle by the target-range upper-bound change. CME FedWatch derives probabilities from 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid was unreadable here. Neither venue’s price is an official Fed forecast or an asset-return forecast.

Checked September 29, 2026 at 19:02 UTC. Access time is not a quote timestamp. This is public research, not personalized investment advice.