October contract rows little changed before JOLTS

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At 13:35 UTC on September 29, Kalshi’s October event page displayed 70% for “Hike 25bps” and 30% for “Fed maintains rate.” Polymarket’s October page displayed 69% for “25 bps increase” and 31% for “No change.” These are separate page-access observations; neither page supplied a reliable separate quote timestamp.

Change since September 28, 19:05 UTC

The named hike rows did not change. Kalshi’s hold heading increased from 29% to 30%; Polymarket’s no-change row remained 31%. The pages do not show the path between checks, and a one-point displayed change may reflect rounding. No official event has been verified as its cause.

What to check next

BLS schedules August JOLTS for September 29 at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC), after this check. BEA schedules August Personal Income and Outlays for September 30 at 08:30 ET. The FOMC calendar lists October 27–28 as the next meeting. A release may change prices; this report does not claim it will.

Measure limits

Kalshi’s page shows additional outcomes. Polymarket’s previously inspected rules settle on the upper-bound change in the target range against the October statement. CME FedWatch derives probabilities from 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid was unreadable here. No combined probability or asset-price forecast is calculated.

Checked September 29, 2026 at 13:35 UTC. This is public research, not personalized investment advice.