October hold still leads at the evening check
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At September 30, 2026, 19:27 UTC page access, Kalshi’s October event page showed 65% “Fed maintains rate” and 33% “Hike 25bps” in its named Chance headings. Polymarket’s separate October page showed 64% “No change” and 34% “25 bps increase.” Hold/no change still led at both venues. These are event-contract readings, not a pooled forecast or a Federal Reserve forecast. The page access time is not a separate quote timestamp.
What changed since 13:36 UTC
| Named row | 13:36 UTC | 19:27 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 65% | 65% | 0 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 35% | 33% | −2 points |
| Polymarket · No change | 66% | 64% | −2 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 34% | 34% | 0 points |
Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry label showed 67% odds, different from its 65% Chance heading. We use the named Chance row consistently. Both pages round displayed rows and show or indicate other outcomes. These observations do not give a complete distribution or a price path between checks.
Official context, not a cause
In September 29 prepared remarks, New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need for urgency after the September policy action and that one further increase late in 2026 might be appropriate if his forecast holds. He specified that these were his views, not necessarily the Committee’s. The inspected speech supplies a date, not a precise publication or delivery time. We cannot assign the afternoon’s small row changes—or the earlier hold reversal—to this speech or to BEA’s September 30 releases.
BLS schedules the September Employment Situation for October 2, 2026 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch describes a different, futures-implied measure, but its live October grid and quote time were not readable in the direct page text at this check, so no CME figure is substituted.
Use limit: A next-decision contract does not predict a bond yield, stock return, or mortgage quote. Another check becomes informative if the named rows change materially or new official evidence arrives; this evening’s small moves do not establish a new direction.