October hold rows extend to 65–66% after BEA releases

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At September 30, 2026, 13:36 UTC page access, Kalshi’s October event page showed 65% for “Fed maintains rate” and 35% for “Hike 25bps” in its named Chance headings. Polymarket’s October page showed 66% for “No change” and 34% for “25 bps increase.” These are separate contracts, not a pooled forecast. Page access time is not a separate quote timestamp.

Change since the prior check

At September 29, 19:02 UTC, Kalshi showed 52% hold and 46% hike; Polymarket showed 51% no change and 48% increase. The named hold/no-change rows rose 13 and 15 percentage points; the named hike rows fell 11 and 14 points. These observations do not show the price path between checks.

Kalshi October hold rose from 52% on September 29 at 19:02 UTC to 65% on September 30 at 13:36 UTC, while its 25 bp-hike row fell 46% to 35%. Polymarket no change rose 51% to 66%, while its 25 bp-increase row fell 48% to 34%. Direct event pages; access times, not quote times. — Sources: direct Kalshi and Polymarket October event pages, accessed September 29 at 19:02 UTC and September 30 at 13:36 UTC. Bars show named rounded rows, not full distributions.

Official context; no causal claim

BEA’s August Personal Income and Outlays release at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC) reported PCE price inflation of 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year; excluding food and energy, 0.2% and 3.0%. BEA’s annual update revised earlier estimates, so a comparison with an older July release would mix data vintages. At the same time, BEA’s third estimate of Q2 real GDP was 2.2% at an annual rate, up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate. These releases were between market-page checks. There was no matched quote immediately before and after the releases, so we cannot say they caused the contract changes. No new Fed communication is used to explain this move.

Next useful check and limits

The BLS September employment report is scheduled for October 2 at 08:30 ET; the FOMC meets October 27–28. Kalshi lists other outcomes and a separate order-entry odds label; this report uses its named Chance headings. Polymarket’s experimental narrative is not evidence of why prices moved. CME FedWatch is a futures-implied calculation, but its current October grid and quote time were unreadable, so no CME percentage is shown. Neither event-contract row predicts an asset return or supplies personal investment advice.

Checked September 30, 2026 at 13:36 UTC.