October hold rows jump to 75% before jobs data
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:03 UTC on October 1, 2026, Kalshi’s October event page showed 75% “Fed maintains rate” and 25% “Hike 25bps” in its Chance headings. Polymarket’s October page showed 75% “No change” and 25% “25 bps increase” in its named rows. Hold remains the leading named outcome at both venues. These are separate event-contract prices, not a pooled forecast or the Fed’s forecast.
Change since 13:36 UTC
| Named row | 13:36 UTC | About 19:03 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 65% | 75% | +10 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 35% | 25% | −10 points |
| Polymarket · No change | 64% | 75% | +11 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 36% | 25% | −11 points |
What could explain it?
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson’s October 1 speech said future policy adjustments depend on data and the balance of risks, and that forming a judgment may take more time. His page gives no precise speech publication or delivery time. His remarks are his own, not an FOMC decision. We cannot establish that the speech, or any other event, caused the price changes. Polymarket’s experimental AI-generated market narrative is not used as evidence of cause.
Next check and limits
BLS schedules the September jobs report for October 2 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable, so no CME figure is shown.
Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label showed 76%, different from its 75% Chance heading. We use the heading for a consistent comparison. The pages include smaller outcomes; rounded rows are not a full distribution. An October decision contract does not forecast a stock, bond or mortgage rate. This is public market information, not personal investment advice.