October hold still leads before the jobs report

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At October 1, 2026, 13:36 UTC page access, Kalshi’s October event page displayed 65% “Fed maintains rate” and 35% “Hike 25bps” in its named Chance headings. Polymarket’s separate October page displayed 64% “No change” and 36% “25 bps increase.” Hold/no change still led at both venues. These are event-contract prices, not a pooled forecast or the Fed’s forecast. Access time is not a separate quote time.

Change since September 30, 19:27 UTC

Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry label displayed 67% odds, unlike its 65% Chance heading. We use the named Chance rows. Both pages display rounded rows and other outcomes; the numbers above are not a full distribution or a continuous price path.

Next check

BLS schedules the September Employment Situation for October 2 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch is a futures-implied measure, not an event contract. Its live October grid and quote time were not readable in the direct page text, so no CME probability is substituted.

A fresh community post attributes the earlier swing to August PCE; the official release preceded our checks, but that sequence does not prove a cause. Polymarket’s experimental AI-generated narrative is also not used as causal evidence. An October decision contract does not forecast a stock, bond, or mortgage rate. The useful next observation is the jobs report and a matched, time-labelled contract check.