October hold still leads at 82% on both event pages
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:06 UTC on October 2, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 82% “Fed maintains rate” and 18% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 82% “No change” and 18% “25 bps increase.” Hold remained the leading named outcome on both pages. These are event-contract displays, not a Fed forecast.
What changed since the afternoon check?
| Named row | About 13:40 UTC | About 19:06 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 84% | 82% | −2 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 17% | 18% | +1 point |
| Polymarket · No change | 84% | 82% | −2 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 17% | 18% | +1 point |
Official context, not an explanation
The BLS September employment report showed 29,000 additional payroll jobs and 4.2% unemployment. It was released at 12:30 UTC, before both checks here. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on October 1 that she estimated at least another 50 basis points of tightening would be needed to balance the outlook and risks. She described her own view, not an FOMC decision, and did not specify an October action. Her remarks preceded the jobs report; the page gives no exact publication time. Neither item proves why the contract rows changed.
Next check and limits
The Fed calendar schedules minutes from the September 15–16 meeting for October 7, 2026, at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). BLS schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The FOMC meets October 27–28. CME FedWatch is futures-implied and distinct from these event contracts; its live October grid and quote time were not readable, so no CME figure is supplied.
Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry label showed 83%, versus 82% in its Chance heading; this report consistently uses the heading. Both venues show smaller outcomes. Rounded rows need not sum to 100%, and we do not pool the venues. Page access does not reveal the quote time or the price path. This information is not personal investment advice.