October hold rows reach 84% after the jobs release
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:40 UTC on October 2, 2026, Kalshi’s October event page showed 84% “Fed maintains rate” and 17% “Hike 25bps” in its Chance headings. Polymarket’s October page showed 84% “No change” and 17% “25 bps increase” in its named rows. Hold is the leading named outcome at each venue. These are separate event-contract readings, not a pooled forecast or a statement from the Fed.
Change since October 1
| Named row | October 1 · 19:03 UTC | October 2 · about 13:40 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 75% | 84% | +9 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 25% | 17% | −8 points |
| Polymarket · No change | 75% | 84% | +9 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 25% | 17% | −8 points |
What the jobs report says
BLS reported September nonfarm payroll growth of 29,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC) on October 2. It revised July payroll growth from +21,000 to −10,000 and August from +162,000 to +133,000: a combined downward revision of 60,000. The release came between our two event-page checks. We cannot tell when the contracts moved within that gap or whether the jobs report caused the change.
Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative referred to September CPI readings as though already published. The BLS calendar schedules that CPI release for October 14. We use the named outcome rows, not that narrative, for this report.
Next check and limits
The next scheduled BLS release most relevant here is September CPI on October 14, 2026, at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures, a different measure. Its live October grid and quote time were unreadable, so we show no CME figure.
Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label showed 85%, different from its 84% Chance heading; this report uses the heading consistently. Both pages contain smaller outcomes. Rounded rows may add to more than 100% and are not a complete distribution. An October decision contract does not predict a stock, bond or mortgage rate. This is public market information, not personal investment advice.