October hold still leads: Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 83%
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At October 3, 2026 at about 19:03 UTC, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 84% “Fed maintains rate” and 19% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 83% “No change” and 18% “25 bps increase.” Hold remained the leading named outcome on each event page. These are not Fed forecasts.
Since the midday check
| Named row | October 3, 13:34 UTC | About 19:03 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 81% | 84% | +3 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 19% | 19% | Unchanged |
| Polymarket · No change | 83% | 83% | Unchanged |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 18% | 18% | Unchanged |
Limits and next checks
The access gap does not show when or why Kalshi’s heading changed. Its selected hold order-entry odds label showed 85%; this report consistently compares Chance headings. The rounded named outcomes are not a complete distribution and the venues are not averaged. Polymarket’s AI-generated explanation is not used as causal evidence. The BLS jobs report preceded both checks, but that timing cannot explain the later Kalshi change.
The Fed events calendar schedules September FOMC minutes for October 7 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable, so no figure is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.