October hold still leads; the two named rows differ by 2 points
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At 13:34:44–13:34:45 UTC on October 3, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 81% “Fed maintains rate” and 19% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 83% “No change” and 18% “25 bps increase.” Hold remains the leading named outcome at both venues. These are displayed event-contract readings, not an FOMC forecast.
Change since October 2 evening
| Named row | October 2, about 19:06 UTC | October 3, 13:34 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 82% | 81% | −1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 18% | 19% | +1 point |
| Polymarket · No change | 82% | 83% | +1 point |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 18% | 18% | No change |
What the check does not show
BLS reported 29,000 added payroll jobs and 4.2% unemployment for September; that release preceded both market-page checks. The observations do not establish why either venue moved. Polymarket’s experimental AI-generated summary asserts a jobs-report cause, but supplies no matched quote observations and is not used here as evidence. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry label showed 83%, versus 81% in its Chance heading; this comparison consistently uses the heading.
Next official checks
The Fed events calendar schedules September FOMC minutes for October 7, 2026 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable, so no figure is supplied.
The rows are rounded, smaller outcomes exist, and the two venues are not pooled. Page access does not reveal intervening price paths. This is public research, not personal investment advice.