October Fed hold still leads: Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 83%
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:33 UTC on October 4, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 82% “Fed maintains rate” and 18% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 83% “No change” and 17% “25 bps increase.” Hold still led on both pages. These are event-contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
Since October 3 evening
| Named row | October 3, 19:03 UTC | October 4, 13:33 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 84% | 82% | −2 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 19% | 18% | −1 point |
| Polymarket · No change | 83% | 83% | Unchanged |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 18% | 17% | −1 point |
What this does not show
The observations do not show when or why the rows moved. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label showed 84%, while its Chance heading showed 82%; this report compares headings. Rounded outcomes on different venues cannot be averaged or used to infer a missing residual. Polymarket’s AI-generated narrative is not causal evidence.
The Fed events calendar schedules September FOMC minutes for October 7 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here, so no figure is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.