October hold rows fall four points; hold still leads
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:08 UTC on October 5, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 78% “Fed maintains rate” and 22% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 79% “No change” and 21% “25 bps increase.” Hold still led on both pages. Neither price is the Federal Reserve’s forecast.
What changed since 13:37 UTC
| Named row | 13:37 UTC | 19:08 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 82% | 78% | −4 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 18% | 22% | +4 percentage points |
| Polymarket · No change | 83% | 79% | −4 percentage points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 17% | 21% | +4 percentage points |
What this does not establish
The two checks do not show when or why the rows moved. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label showed 80%, while the Chance heading showed 78%; this report uses Chance headings. The venues have separate contracts and rounded displays. Do not average them or derive a residual. Polymarket’s experimental AI summary asserts a jobs-report explanation, but does not establish the cause of this afternoon’s move.
The Fed events calendar schedules September FOMC minutes for October 7 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable in this check. No CME figure is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.