October hold still leads; Kalshi dips to 82%

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 13:37 UTC on October 5, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 82% “Fed maintains rate” and 18% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 83% “No change” and 17% “25 bps increase.” Hold still led on both event pages; neither reading is a Fed forecast.

Since Sunday evening

Named row	Oct 4, 19:05 UTC	Oct 5, 13:37 UTC	Change
Kalshi · Fed maintains rate	83%	82%	−1 percentage point
Kalshi · Hike 25bps	18%	18%	Unchanged
Polymarket · No change	83%	83%	Unchanged
Polymarket · 25 bps increase	17%	17%	Unchanged

Kalshi October maintain-rate Chance heading fell from 83% at October 4, 19:05 UTC access to 82% at October 5, 13:37 UTC. Polymarket No change stayed at 83%. Access is not quote time. — Named hold rows on direct Kalshi and Polymarket pages, accessed October 4–5, 2026. Access is not quote time.

What remains unknown

The checks do not show when or why Kalshi’s heading changed. Its selected hold order-entry odds label showed 84%, while its Chance heading showed 82%; this report compares Chance headings. The venues have different settlement rules and independently rounded rows. Do not average them or infer a residual from these displays. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative is not evidence of what caused a price move.

The Fed events calendar schedules September FOMC minutes for October 7 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here, so no figure is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.