October hold still leads; both named rows edge up one point
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:04 UTC on October 6, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 82% “Fed maintains rate” and 18% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 83% “No change” and 17% “25 bps increase.” Hold remained the leading named outcome on both event pages. Neither price is a Fed forecast.
Change since October 6 at 13:36 UTC
| Named row | Then | 19:04 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 81% | 82% | +1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 18% | 18% | None |
| Polymarket · No change | 82% | 83% | +1 point |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 18% | 17% | −1 point |
What remains unknown
Two checks do not show the intraday path or cause. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 84%, different from its 82% Chance heading; this report uses Chance headings. The venues have separate contracts and rounded displays; do not average them or derive the missing outcomes by subtraction. Polymarket’s experimental AI text is not evidence of the move’s cause.
The Fed events calendar schedules September FOMC minutes for October 7 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable in this check, so no CME figure is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.