October hold remains above 80% on two event pages
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:36 UTC on October 6, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 81% “Fed maintains rate” and 18% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 82% “No change” and 18% “25 bps increase.” Hold still led on each page. These are traded event-contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
Change since October 5 at 19:08 UTC
| Named row | Then | October 6 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 78% | 81% | +3 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 22% | 18% | −4 points |
| Polymarket · No change | 79% | 82% | +3 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 21% | 18% | −3 points |
What the checks cannot show
The two checks do not show when or why the rows moved. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 84%, while the Chance heading was 81%; this report uses Chance headings. The venues use separate contracts and rounded displays. Do not average them or derive a residual. Polymarket’s experimental AI summary is not evidence of the move’s cause.
The Fed events calendar schedules September FOMC minutes for October 7 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable in this check. No CME figure is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.