Minutes point to another 2026 hike; October hold still leads
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:06 UTC on October 7, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 83% “Fed maintains rate” and 17% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 84% “No change” and 16% “25 bps increase.” Both named hold outcomes lead. These are contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
What changed after the minutes
Kalshi’s named rows were unchanged from the 13:35 UTC page check. Polymarket’s no-change row rose 1 percentage point, from 83% to 84%, while its 25 bps-increase row fell from 17% to 16%. The September FOMC minutes, released at 18:00 UTC, say most participants at the September meeting assessed that another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end. Future decisions remain dependent on incoming information. The minutes do not say that October must bring a hike.
| Named outcome | 13:35 UTC | 19:06 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 83% | 83% | None |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 17% | 17% | None |
| Polymarket · No change | 83% | 84% | +1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 17% | 16% | −1 point |
Next test
The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. The September minutes describe views at that earlier meeting, not a decision on October’s incoming data.
Limits
These page checks bracket the minutes release but do not reveal the intervening price path or establish that the minutes caused Polymarket’s move. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 84%, different from its 83% Chance heading; this report uses Chance headings. The two venues have different contracts and rounded rows; do not average them or infer other outcome prices by subtraction. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative is not causal evidence. CME FedWatch is a futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here, so no CME figure is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.