Before today’s minutes, October hold still leads
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:35 UTC on October 7, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 83% “Fed maintains rate” and 17% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 83% “No change” and 17% “25 bps increase.” Hold remains the leading named outcome on both pages. These are contract displays, not a Fed forecast.
Change since October 6 at 19:04 UTC
| Named row | Then | October 7, 13:35 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 82% | 83% | +1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 18% | 17% | −1 point |
| Polymarket · No change | 83% | 83% | None |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 17% | 17% | None |
Next test
The Fed calendar schedules minutes of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting for today, October 7 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC), after this check. The next decision is October 27–28. The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). A new check after the minutes can establish what the displayed rows show then; it cannot by itself prove what moved them.
Limits
The two checks do not show the intervening path or cause. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 84%, different from its 83% Chance heading; this report uses the Chance headings. The venues have separate contracts and rounded displays, so do not average their rows or infer missing outcomes by subtraction. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative is not causal evidence. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here, so no CME figure is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.