October hold still leads at both venues
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:06 UTC on October 8, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 83% “Fed maintains rate” and 16% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 84% “No change” and 16% “25 bps increase.” Both named hold outcomes lead. These are event-contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
Change since October 8 midday
| Named outcome | 13:35 UTC | 19:06 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 82% | 83% | +1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 16% | 16% | None |
| Polymarket · No change | 84% | 84% | None |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 17% | 16% | −1 percentage point |
Next official test
The BLS schedule sets September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The Fed calendar lists the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. The September minutes say most participants viewed another hike as likely appropriate by year-end, while future decisions depend on incoming information. They do not commit the Committee to an October hike.
Limits
These page checks do not show the intervening price path or cause. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 85%, not its 83% Chance heading; this report uses Chance headings. Polymarket’s experimental AI summary is not evidence about price cause. The venues have different contracts and rounded rows; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch is futures-implied, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here, so no CME percentage is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.