October hold still leads; small moves since last check
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:35 UTC on October 8, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 82% “Fed maintains rate” and 16% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 84% “No change” and 17% “25 bps increase.” Both named hold outcomes remain well ahead of the named 25-basis-point hike outcomes. These are event-contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
Change since October 7 evening
| Named outcome | Oct 7 · 19:06 UTC | Oct 8 · 13:35 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 83% | 82% | −1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 17% | 16% | −1 point |
| Polymarket · No change | 84% | 84% | None |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 16% | 17% | +1 point |
Next test
The BLS schedule sets September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The Fed calendar lists the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. The September minutes describe most participants seeing another increase as likely appropriate by year-end; they do not commit the Committee to an October hike.
Limits
The checks do not show the intervening price path or why the small changes occurred. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 83%, not its 82% Chance heading; this report uses Chance headings. Polymarket’s experimental AI summary is not evidence about price cause. The venues have different contracts and rounded rows; do not add, average or subtract them to construct a distribution. CME FedWatch is futures-implied, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here, so no CME percentage is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.