October hold still leads after small evening declines
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:05 UTC on October 9, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 83% “Fed maintains rate” and 16% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 84% “No change” and 16% “25 bps increase.” Both named hold outcomes still lead. These event-contract displays are not Fed forecasts.
Change since midday
| Named outcome | Oct 9 · 13:33 UTC | Oct 9 · 19:05 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 85% | 83% | −2 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 17% | 16% | −1 point |
| Polymarket · No change | 85% | 84% | −1 point |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 16% | 16% | unchanged |
Next test and limits
The BLS schedule sets September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The Fed calendar lists the FOMC meeting for October 27–28. The page checks show a small change, not why it happened. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 85%, distinct from its 83% Chance heading. Rows are rounded and contracts differ; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch uses a futures-implied method, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. No CME figure is substituted. This is public research, not personal investment advice.