October hold still leads; Waller says hikes need not be consecutive
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:33 UTC on October 9, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 85% “Fed maintains rate” and 17% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 85% “No change” and 16% “25 bps increase.” Both named hold outcomes lead. These are event-contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
Change since October 8 evening
| Named outcome | Oct 8 · 19:06 UTC | Oct 9 · 13:33 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 83% | 85% | +2 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 16% | 17% | +1 point |
| Polymarket · No change | 84% | 85% | +1 point |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 16% | 16% | None |
What Waller said
In his October 8 speech, Governor Christopher Waller said he anticipated additional hikes if the data continued as expected, but that hikes need not come at consecutive meetings. He specified that his views were his own. The September FOMC minutes also discuss a possible further increase by year-end, not an October commitment. Waller's remarks are policy context; these sparse price checks do not show whether they moved either contract.
Next test and limits
The BLS schedule sets September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The Fed calendar lists the FOMC meeting for October 27–28. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 86%, not its 85% Chance heading; this report uses Chance headings. The venues have different contracts and rounded rows; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch is futures-implied, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here, so no current CME percentage is supplied. This is public research, not personal investment advice.