October hold still leads in evening check

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 19:03 UTC on October 10, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 85% “Fed maintains rate” and 15% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 84% “No change” and 16% “25 bps increase.” Both still favor a hold at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These contract prices are not Fed forecasts.

What changed since the afternoon check?

Named outcome	Oct 10 · 14:31 UTC	Oct 10 · 19:03 UTC	Change
Kalshi · Fed maintains rate	85%	85%	unchanged
Kalshi · Hike 25bps	16%	15%	−1 percentage point
Polymarket · No change	84%	84%	unchanged
Polymarket · 25 bps increase	16%	16%	unchanged

Kalshi October maintain-rate Chance heading stayed at 85% from 14:31 to 19:03 UTC October 10, 2026, while its hike heading fell 16% to 15%. Polymarket No change stayed 84% and hike stayed 16%. Source: direct event pages, page access not quote time. — Direct Kalshi and Polymarket pages accessed October 10 at about 14:31 and 19:03 UTC, 2026. Access is not quote time.

Next test and limits

The BLS October calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC) and PPI for October 15 at the same time. The observations do not show why Kalshi’s hike heading moved. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 86%, not the 85% Chance heading used here. The rounded venue rows are separate measures; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. No futures-implied percentage is substituted. This is public research, not personal investment advice.