October hold still leads before CPI

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 14:31 UTC on October 10, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 85% “Fed maintains rate” and 16% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 84% “No change” and 16% “25 bps increase.” Both still favor a hold at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These contract prices are not Fed forecasts.

What changed since October 9 evening?

Named outcome	Oct 9 · 19:05 UTC	Oct 10 · 14:31 UTC	Change
Kalshi · Fed maintains rate	83%	85%	+2 percentage points
Kalshi · Hike 25bps	16%	16%	unchanged
Polymarket · No change	84%	84%	unchanged
Polymarket · 25 bps increase	16%	16%	unchanged

Kalshi October maintain-rate Chance heading rose from 83% on October 9 to 85% on October 10; Polymarket No change stayed at 84%. Source: direct event pages, page access times not quote times. — Direct Kalshi and Polymarket event pages accessed October 9 at 19:05 UTC and October 10 at about 14:31 UTC, 2026. Access is not quote time.

Next test and limits

The BLS October calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC) and PPI for October 15 at the same time. The observations do not show why Kalshi’s heading moved. Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 86%, not the 85% Chance heading used here. The rounded venue rows are separate measures; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. No futures-implied percentage is substituted. This is public research, not personal investment advice.