October hold still leads before Waller and CPI

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 21:31 UTC on October 11, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 84% “Fed maintains rate” and 16% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 84% “No change” and 17% “25 bps increase.” Both named hold outcomes still lead for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These event-contract prices are not Fed forecasts.

What changed since the previous direct check?

Since the October 10, 19:03 UTC check, Kalshi’s named hold heading fell 1 percentage point and its hike heading rose 1 point. Polymarket’s hold row was unchanged and its hike row rose 1 point. The checks do not show when or why those rows moved.

Named outcome	Oct 10 · 19:03 UTC	Oct 11 · about 21:31 UTC	Change
Kalshi · Fed maintains rate	85%	84%	−1 percentage point
Kalshi · Hike 25bps	15%	16%	+1 percentage point
Polymarket · No change	84%	84%	unchanged
Polymarket · 25 bps increase	16%	17%	+1 percentage point

Direct Kalshi October Chance headings from October 10 at 19:03 UTC to October 11 at about 21:31 UTC: maintain rate 85% to 84%; Hike 25bps 15% to 16%. Polymarket named rows: No change 84% to 84%; 25 bps increase 16% to 17%. Page access is not quote time. — Direct Kalshi and Polymarket October pages accessed October 10 at 19:03 UTC and October 11 at about 21:31 UTC, 2026. Access is not quote time; rows are separate rounded displays.

Next evidence and limits

Next scheduled checks: Governor Waller’s Economic Outlook speech on October 13; September CPI on October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC); and the Fed Beige Book on October 14 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). These are upcoming evidence, not explanations of the past price change.

Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 86%, not the 84% Chance heading used here. Polymarket’s previously inspected rules use the change in the target-range upper bound and the October FOMC statement for resolution; its experimental AI narrative is not evidence of a price cause. The rounded venue rows are separate measures; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. No futures-implied percentage is substituted. This is public research, not personal investment advice.