October hold readings are unchanged in the evening check
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:30 UTC on October 12, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 80% “Fed maintains rate” and 19% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 80% “No change” and 20% “25 bps increase.” All four named rows were unchanged from our approximately 19:11 UTC check. Hold still leads for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These prices are not Fed forecasts.
What changed?
Nothing material in the four displayed rows since the earlier check today. Relative to October 11 at 21:31 UTC, each named hold row remains 4 percentage points lower and each named 25-basis-point hike row 3 points higher. The checks do not establish when or why that move happened.
| Named outcome | October 12 · about 19:11 UTC | October 12 · about 19:30 UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 80% | 80% |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 19% | 19% |
| Polymarket · No change | 80% | 80% |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 20% | 20% |
Next official checks
The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC) and September PPI for October 15 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The Fed calendar schedules the Beige Book for October 14 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The same calendar puts Waller’s Economic Outlook speech on October 8, correcting our earlier October 13 listing. These scheduled events cannot explain the earlier price move without further evidence.
Method and limits
Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 82%, distinct from the 80% Chance heading used here. Polymarket’s previously inspected rules use the change in the target-range upper bound and the October FOMC statement for resolution. Its experimental AI-generated narrative is not causal evidence. These rounded venue rows are separate measures; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch derives probabilities from 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. No futures-implied figure is substituted. This is public research, not personal investment advice.