October hold rows fall to 80%; CPI is next
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:11 UTC on October 12, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 80% “Fed maintains rate” and 19% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 80% “No change” and 20% “25 bps increase.” Both hold rows still lead for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These event-contract prices are not Fed forecasts.
What changed?
Since the October 11, 21:31 UTC check, each named hold row fell 4 percentage points and each named 25-basis-point hike row rose 3 points. The checks do not show when or why those prices moved.
| Named outcome | October 11 · 21:31 UTC | October 12 · about 19:11 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 84% | 80% | −4 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 16% | 19% | +3 points |
| Polymarket · No change | 84% | 80% | −4 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 17% | 20% | +3 points |
Calendar correction and next checks
Correction to our October 11 report: We listed an October 13 Waller Economic Outlook speech. The Fed calendar places that speech on October 8 and lists an AI discussion on October 13. September CPI is scheduled for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC); the Beige Book follows at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). These future releases cannot explain a prior move without further evidence.
Method and limits
Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 82%, not the 80% Chance heading used here. Polymarket’s previously inspected rules use the change in the target-range upper bound and the October FOMC statement for resolution; its experimental AI narrative is not evidence of a price cause. The rounded venue rows are separate measures; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. No futures-implied percentage is substituted. This is public research, not personal investment advice.