October hold still leads in the evening before CPI
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:06 UTC on October 13, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 82% “Fed maintains rate” and 19% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 80% “No change” and 20% “25 bps increase.” Hold is the leading named outcome for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are event-contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
Change from the afternoon check
| Named row | October 13 · about 15:18 UTC | October 13 · about 19:06 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 81% | 82% | +1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 21% | 19% | −2 points |
| Polymarket · No change | 80% | 80% | 0 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 20% | 20% | 0 points |
These rounded named rows are not a complete distribution. The page checks do not show the intervening path or why the Kalshi change occurred.
Next verified checkpoints
The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC), then September PPI for October 15 at the same hour. The Fed calendar schedules the Beige Book for October 14 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). No CPI result had been published at this check.
Method and limits
Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 83%, not the 82% Chance heading used here. Polymarket’s previously inspected rules use the target-range upper-bound change for resolution. Its experimental AI-generated narrative is not evidence for the cause of a move. The two event pages are not a consensus measure. CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. No futures-implied figure is substituted. This is public research, not personal investment advice.