October hold still leads in pre-CPI direct check

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 15:18 UTC on October 13, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 81% “Fed maintains rate” and 21% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 80% “No change” and 20% “25 bps increase.” Hold is still the leading named outcome for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are contract prices, not Fed forecasts.

Change from the October 12 evening check

Named row	October 12 · about 19:30 UTC	October 13 · about 15:18 UTC	Change
Kalshi · Fed maintains rate	80%	81%	+1 percentage point
Kalshi · Hike 25bps	19%	21%	+2 points
Polymarket · No change	80%	80%	0 points
Polymarket · 25 bps increase	20%	20%	0 points

Kalshi’s two rounded headings both rose; they are not a complete distribution. The page checks do not show the intervening path or why the change occurred.

Direct page checks: Kalshi October maintain-rate Chance heading 80% on October 12 at about 19:30 UTC and 81% on October 13 at about 15:18 UTC; Hike 25bps 19% to 21%. Polymarket named No change row stayed 80% and 25 bps increase stayed 20%. — Direct Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows, accessed October 12 at about 19:30 UTC and October 13 at about 15:18 UTC, 2026. Access times are not quote times; venues are separate.

Next verified checkpoints

The BLS calendar schedules September CPI for October 14 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC), then September PPI for October 15 at the same hour. The Fed calendar schedules the Beige Book for October 14 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). Tomorrow’s CPI may change market prices, but no result has been published at this check.

Method and limits

Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 82%, not the 81% Chance heading used here. Polymarket’s previously inspected rules use the target-range upper-bound change for resolution. Its experimental AI-generated narrative is not evidence for the cause of a move. The two event pages are not a consensus measure. CME FedWatch uses 30-Day Fed Funds futures, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. No futures-implied figure is substituted. This is public research, not personal investment advice.