October Fed decision: CPI-day prices split the venues
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:34 UTC on October 14, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 53% “Fed maintains rate” and 47% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 47% “No change” and 52% “25 bps increase.” The venues now differ on the leading named outcome for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
Change from the October 13 evening check
| Named row | Oct 13 · 19:06 UTC | Oct 14 · about 13:34 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 82% | 53% | −29 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 19% | 47% | +28 points |
| Polymarket · No change | 80% | 47% | −33 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 20% | 52% | +32 points |
The changes come from two page-access checks, not a continuous price record. Do not add the independently rounded rows or average the venues.
Verified release; unverified cause
BLS reported September CPI at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC) on October 14. Headline CPI rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months; CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in the month and 2.6% over 12 months. Gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for more than half of the monthly headline increase. The release falls between the two market checks. That timing makes it relevant, but the checks do not isolate its effect from other trading or news.
Next checks and limits
The Fed calendar schedules the Beige Book for October 14 at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). The BLS calendar schedules September PPI for October 15 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC).
Kalshi’s selected hold order-entry odds label was 55%, not its 53% Chance heading. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative gave different prices and an unverified explanation; this report uses only the named rows. The CME FedWatch page describes a futures-implied method, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. Page access is not quote time, and no precise turning point or cause is established. This is public market research, not personal investment advice.