October hold leads again at both venues after the midday split
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:04 UTC on October 14, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 69% “Fed maintains rate” and 31% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 69% “No change” and 31% “25 bps increase.” Both venues favored a hold for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are contract displays, not Fed forecasts.
What changed since the midday checks
| Named row | About 13:34 UTC | About 19:04 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · Fed maintains rate | 53% | 69% | +16 percentage points |
| Kalshi · Hike 25bps | 47% | 31% | −16 points |
| Polymarket · No change | 47% | 69% | +22 points |
| Polymarket · 25 bps increase | 52% | 31% | −21 points |
The two venues had different leaders at the earlier check. Their named hold rows both led by the evening check. These are page-access observations, not continuous price history or quote timestamps. The separately rounded rows should not be added or averaged.
Official context, not a cause
The Fed released its October Beige Book at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC). Most Districts reported little or no net employment change. Three described robust price growth, eight moderate and one modest. The Beige Book summarizes outside contacts’ reports gathered on or before October 5; it is not a policy decision. The market checks bracket its release, but they do not establish that the Beige Book caused the move. September CPI was released earlier today, before both checks.
Next check and limits
BLS schedules September PPI for October 15 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). CME FedWatch describes a separate futures-implied measure, but its live October grid and quote time remained unreadable here. Polymarket’s experimental AI summary and FAQ gave differently rounded or inconsistent figures; this report uses the named rows. No precise turning point or cause is established. This is public market research, not personal investment advice.