October hold reaches 87% on both direct event pages

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 22:32 UTC on October 17, 2026, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 87% “Fed maintains rate” and 14% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 87% “No change” and 14% “25 bps increase.” Both favored a hold at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are event-contract displays, not a Fed forecast.

Change since the last recorded check

What happened between checks is unknown

BLS reported September import prices up 1.1% and export prices up 2.2% on October 16 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). The Federal Reserve calendar lists a Chair Warsh discussion on October 15. Both are context, not an identified cause of the price change. Without venue quote timestamps or a matched trade history, the two page checks cannot show when the repricing occurred.

Kalshi’s event is KXFEDDECISION-26OCT; this report uses Chance headings, not order-entry odds. Polymarket’s October event resolves by the change in the target range’s upper bound against its pre-meeting level; this report uses named outcome rows, not its experimental AI summary. The separately rounded Polymarket 87% and 14% rows total 101%; do not add, normalize or average either venue’s rows. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time remained unreadable here.

Next policy checkpoint: the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. This is public market research, not personal investment advice.