October hold remains at 87% in evening checks
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:04 UTC on October 18, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 87% “Fed maintains rate” and 12% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 87% “No change” and 14% “25 bps increase.” Both favored a hold at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
Change since 13:36 UTC
| Named measure | 13:36 UTC | 19:04 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate | 87% | 87% | 0 percentage points |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp | 14% | 12% | −2 percentage points |
| Polymarket · no change | 87% | 87% | 0 percentage points |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase | 14% | 14% | 0 percentage points |
What the check does not show
Kalshi’s order-entry prices and its selected-contract odds calculation are different displays from the Chance headings above. Polymarket’s rounded rows total 101% here; do not add or normalize them. The two page checks do not establish when prices changed or why. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative is not evidence for a cause.
CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here. The BLS schedule lists state employment and unemployment for October 20 at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC). The Fed events calendar lists the October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). BEA schedules September personal income and outlays on October 29, after the decision. These are checkpoints, not proven causes of the observed rows.
Event-contract prices are not Federal Reserve forecasts or personal investment advice.