October hold still leads; Polymarket no-change row is 85%
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:07 UTC on October 19, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 86% “Fed maintains rate” and 14% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 85% “No change” and 15% “25 bps increase.” Both favored a hold for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
Change since the 13:33 UTC check
| Named measure | 13:33 UTC | 19:07 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate | 86% | 86% | unchanged |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp | 13% | 14% | +1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · no change | 86% | 85% | −1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase | 14% | 15% | +1 percentage point |
Limits and next check
Kalshi’s order-entry prices and selected-contract odds are separate from its Chance headings. Polymarket’s experimental AI summary is not evidence of why prices moved. The two checks do not locate the change in time or establish a cause. Separately rounded venue rows should not be added, normalized or averaged. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable.
The BLS calendar lists September state employment and unemployment for October 20 at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC). The Fed calendar lists the October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). BEA schedules third-quarter advance GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29, after the decision. These are checkpoints, not explanations of this price movement.
Event-contract prices are not Federal Reserve forecasts or personal investment advice.