October hold still leads at 86% on both pages
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 13:33 UTC on October 19, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 86% “Fed maintains rate” and 13% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 86% “No change” and 14% “25 bps increase.” Both favored a hold at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
Change since October 18, 19:04 UTC
| Named measure | Previous check | October 19 check | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate | 87% | 86% | −1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp | 12% | 13% | +1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · no change | 87% | 86% | −1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase | 14% | 14% | unchanged |
Limits and next check
Kalshi’s selected-contract order-entry odds differ from its Chance headings. Polymarket’s experimental AI market summary is not evidence for a cause. These two observations do not show when prices moved or why. Do not combine separately rounded venue rows. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here.
The BLS calendar lists state employment and unemployment for October 20 at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC). The Fed calendar lists the October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). BEA schedules September personal income and outlays for October 29, after the decision. These checkpoints do not establish the cause of earlier moves.
Event-contract prices are not Federal Reserve forecasts or personal investment advice.