October hold still leads; the two event pages move in opposite directions
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:07 UTC on October 20, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 88% “Fed maintains rate” and 12% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 86% “No change” and 14% “25 bps increase.” Hold remains the leading named outcome on both pages for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
What changed since 13:35 UTC
| Named display | 13:35 UTC | 19:07 UTC | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate | 87% | 88% | +1 percentage point |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp | 12% | 12% | unchanged |
| Polymarket · no change | 87% | 86% | −1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase | 13% | 14% | +1 percentage point |
Official data and limits
The BLS September state employment release was issued at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC) on October 20. It reported lower unemployment rates in 5 states; nonfarm payroll employment rose in 2 states, fell in 1, and was essentially unchanged in 47 states and the District of Columbia. This is state-level evidence, not a second national payroll report. Both direct page checks bracket the release, but neither venue provides a usable quote time here. The observations do not establish whether the release caused either move.
Kalshi’s Chance headings differ from order-entry odds. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative is not evidence of a price cause. The named displays are rounded and separate; do not add or average them. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied measure; its live October grid and quote time were unreadable in this access.
The Fed calendar lists the October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). Event-contract prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.