October hold readings rise to 94% on Kalshi and 95% on Polymarket

Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1

Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?

At about 19:06 UTC on October 22, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 94% “Fed maintains rate” and 6% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate named rows showed 95% “No change” and 6% “25 bps increase.” Hold leads on both pages for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are different contracts, not a combined probability.

Change since the October 22 midday check

Named display	Oct 22, 13:34 UTC	Oct 22, 19:06 UTC	Change
Kalshi · maintains rate Chance heading	89%	94%	+5 percentage points
Kalshi · hike 25 bp Chance heading	10%	6%	−4 percentage points
Polymarket · no change named row	91%	95%	+4 percentage points
Polymarket · 25 bp increase named row	9%	6%	−3 percentage points

At October 22, 2026 page checks, Kalshi's maintain-rate Chance heading rose from 89% at 13:34 UTC to 94% at 19:06 UTC; Polymarket's no-change named row rose from 91% to 95%. — Direct Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows, page checks October 22 at about 13:34 and 19:06 UTC. Access time is not quote time.

What the checks can show

The hold displays rose five percentage points on Kalshi and four on Polymarket between checks. Weekly claims were released at 12:30 UTC, before the midday page check. These snapshots do not establish an intraday price path or a cause. The next verified policy checkpoint is the October 28 FOMC statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC), with the press conference scheduled for 14:30 ET.

Reading the measures

Kalshi’s Chance headings differ from order-entry prices. Polymarket’s named rows are separate rounded displays; 95% and 6% need not add to 100%. Its experimental AI explanation conflicts with the named rows and is excluded. The venue pages do not provide reliable quote times for these percentages. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied method; its direct October grid and quote time were unreadable here. These prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.