October hold leads: Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%
Pool topic: Fed Decision Market Watch · Question revision: 1
Exact question: What do prediction markets and other clearly identified market measures expect from the next Federal Reserve decision, how have those expectations changed, and which verified economic releases and Fed communications help explain the change?
At about 19:04 UTC on October 24, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 93% “Fed maintains rate” and 7% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate October named rows showed 95% “No change” and 6% “25 bps increase.” Hold leads on both pages for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. These are separate event-contract displays, not a combined probability.
The October hold displays rose since the October 23 evening page check. The check cannot show when or why prices moved.
What changed between checks
| Named display | Oct 23, 19:03 UTC | Oct 24, 19:04 UTC | Displayed change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi · maintains rate Chance heading | 91% | 93% | +2 percentage points |
| Kalshi · hike 25 bp Chance heading | 8% | 7% | −1 percentage point |
| Polymarket · no change named row | 92% | 95% | +3 percentage points |
| Polymarket · 25 bp increase named row | 8% | 6% | −2 percentage points |
What this does not establish
These are page access times, not venue quote times. The displays are rounded, may not sum to 100%, and can differ from order-entry prices. Neither page check establishes the intraday path or cause. Polymarket’s experimental AI narrative is not used. CME FedWatch is a separate futures-implied method; its direct live October grid and quote time were not readable in this check.
Next official checkpoints
The Federal Reserve calendar lists the October 28 FOMC meeting at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and a press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). The FOMC calendar does not mark October for projections. BLS lists metropolitan employment and business employment dynamics at 10:00 ET (14:00 UTC) October 28. BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 08:30 ET, after the policy decision. Schedules can change.
Contract prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.