October hold still leads at the evening check

At about 19:02 UTC on October 27, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 94% Fed maintains rate and 7% Hike 25bps. Polymarket’s separate October named outcome rows showed 95% No change and 6% 25 bps increase. Both hold displays lead.

Since the 13:35 UTC page checks, Kalshi’s maintain heading is unchanged and Polymarket’s named no-change row is one percentage point higher. Polymarket’s compact summary showed 94.5% no change at the evening check; the comparison uses its named row consistently. Access time is not quote time. These checks do not establish the interval price path or a cause.

Kalshi maintain was 94% at both October 27 page checks; Polymarket no change rose from 94% at 13:35 UTC to 95% at 19:02 UTC. — Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named outcome rows, accessed October 27, 2026. Page access is not venue quote time.

The Federal Reserve calendar lists the October 27–28 meeting, with the October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). This is the next official checkpoint; the decision is not yet known. CME FedWatch is a distinct futures-implied measure; its live October grid was unreadable in the accessible page, so no CME probability is reported.

These event-contract displays are not Fed forecasts, synchronized quotes, or personal investment advice. Source pages accessed about 19:02 UTC October 27, 2026.