October hold rows reach 94% on both direct pages

At about 13:35 UTC on October 27, 2026, Kalshi’s October KXFEDDECISION-26OCT Chance headings showed 94% “Fed maintains rate” and 7% “Hike 25bps.” Polymarket’s separate October named rows showed 94% “No change” and 6% “25 bps increase.” A hold still leads on both pages before the October 28 decision.

Since the October 27 09:43 UTC page checks, Kalshi maintain rose 1 percentage point and its hike heading fell 1 point; Polymarket’s two named rows did not change. These observations are not venue quote-time records and do not explain why any display changed.

Kalshi maintain was 93%, 93%, and 94% at October 24 and two October 27 page checks. Polymarket no change was 95%, 94%, and 94%. Sources and access times are in the caption. — Kalshi Chance headings and Polymarket named rows accessed October 24 at 19:04 UTC and October 27 at 09:43 and about 13:35 UTC. Access time is not quote time.

What happens next

The Federal Reserve schedules its October 28 statement at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC) and press conference at 14:30 ET (18:30 UTC). BEA schedules third-quarter advance GDP and September personal income and outlays at 08:30 ET October 29, after the decision. The later data cannot explain this predecision page check.

Limits

These are separate rounded event-contract displays, not a combined forecast. Kalshi’s published maintain-rate rule settles Yes for a 0-basis-point move on October 28; Polymarket’s October rules use the target-range upper-bound change and the FOMC statement. Kalshi order-entry odds differ from its Chance headings. Polymarket’s experimental AI commentary is excluded. CME FedWatch uses a distinct futures-implied method, but its live October grid and quote time were unreadable here, so no CME percentage is reported. Contract prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.