Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00%; December hike rows lead

October 28, 2026 · about 19:05 UTC page check. The Federal Open Market Committee statement, released at 14:00 ET (18:00 UTC), maintained the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred a 25-basis-point increase.

The last recorded predecision October check, at about 13:35 UTC, showed a 94% hold Chance heading on Kalshi and a 93% no-change named row on Polymarket. Hold was the official result. One result cannot establish that either venue’s historical probabilities were calibrated.

Next meeting: December 8–9

At about 19:05 UTC October 28, the accessible Kalshi December KXFEDDECISION-26DEC page showed Chance headings of 81% “Hike 25bps,” 18% “Fed maintains rate,” and 3% “Hike >25bps.” The separate Polymarket December named rows showed 82% “25 bps increase,” 16% “No change,” and 3% “50+ bps increase.” These rounded, venue-specific displays should not be added or averaged. Page access is not quote time; the two sources are not synchronized.

Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote; December 25-basis-point-hike displays showed 81% on Kalshi and 82% on Polymarket at about 19:05 UTC October 28. — Federal Reserve statement; Kalshi and Polymarket December pages accessed October 28, 2026. Access time is not quote time.

The Fed calendar identifies December 8–9 as the next meeting and marks it for projections. BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). BLS schedules October employment for November 6 and October CPI for November 10 at 08:30 ET (13:30 UTC).

No matched December contract observation before the October statement was captured. The December levels cannot establish a reaction to the statement. CME FedWatch is a distinct futures-implied measure; its live December grid and quote time were not readable in the accessible page. Market prices are not Fed forecasts or personal investment advice.