December 25-basis-point hike rows show 77% on both venues

October 29, 2026 · pages accessed about 19:06 UTC. The next scheduled Fed decision is December 9. Kalshi’s KXFEDDECISION-26DEC Chance headings showed 77% for Hike 25bps, 23% for Fed maintains rate and 3% for Hike >25bps. Polymarket’s separate December event named rows showed 77% for 25 bps increase, 22% for No change and 2% for 50+ bps increase. These are displayed event-contract readings, not a Fed forecast or a combined probability.

At our 13:34 UTC page check today, Kalshi’s same hike heading was 80% and Polymarket’s named hike row was 78%. The new displays are lower by three and one percentage points. The checks were not synchronized with venue quotes. They cannot show the exact price path or when either move occurred.

Kalshi December 25-basis-point-hike Chance heading fell from 80% at the 13:34 UTC October 29 page check to 77% at 19:06 UTC. Polymarket’s separate named row fell from 78% to 77%. Page access is not quote time. — Kalshi and Polymarket December event pages, accessed October 29, 2026 at about 13:34 and 19:06 UTC. Rounded display rows; unknown quote times.

Context and next check

The October 28 FOMC statement held the target range at 3.75%–4.00%. At 12:30 UTC today, BEA reported 3.4% annualized third-quarter GDP growth and 3.6% year-over-year September PCE inflation. The data preceded both page checks today. Without native quote times, these checks cannot show whether the releases caused the later displays.

The BLS schedule lists September job openings on November 3 at 15:00 UTC, October employment on November 6 at 13:30 UTC, and October CPI on November 10 at 13:30 UTC. CME FedWatch uses fed funds futures rather than event-contract prices; its live December grid and quote time were not readable in the accessible page. Check venue rules and executable prices before any trade.