December hike rows ease after the October decision and new BEA releases

October 29, 2026 · about 13:34 UTC page check. The next scheduled Fed decision is December 9. Kalshi’s December KXFEDDECISION-26DEC Chance heading showed 80% for Hike 25bps and 20% for Fed maintains rate. Polymarket’s separate December event named rows showed 78% for 25 bps increase and 20% for No change. These are displayed event-contract prices, not Fed forecasts.

At our October 28 page check, Kalshi showed 81% for the same hike heading and 18% maintain; Polymarket showed 82% for its hike row and 16% no change. The hike displays are lower by one and four percentage points, respectively, between our checks. The venues are not synchronized. Access time is not quote time.

Kalshi December 25-basis-point hike Chance heading: 81% at the October 28 page check and 80% at the October 29 check. Polymarket December named row: 82% then 78%. Source links and access dates are in the caption. — Kalshi and Polymarket event pages, accessed about 19:05 UTC October 28 and 13:34 UTC October 29. Displayed rounded rows, not synchronized venue quote times.

What was released today

At 08:30 EDT (12:30 UTC) October 29, BEA’s advance GDP estimate put third-quarter real growth at a 3.4% annual rate, versus 2.2% in the second quarter. BEA’s September personal-income report put the PCE price index at +0.5% month over month and +3.6% year over year; excluding food and energy, it was +0.3% and +3.1%. These releases occurred between our two page checks, as did the October 28 FOMC hold. We have no venue quote-time series across those events, so cannot assign the display changes to any one release.

What to check next

The BLS calendar lists October employment on November 6 and October CPI on November 10 at 08:30 EST (13:30 UTC). The Fed’s December 8–9 meeting is scheduled to include projections. CME FedWatch uses a different, futures-implied method; its live December grid and quote time were not readable in the accessible page. Check the full terms of either event contract before treating a displayed percentage as a trade price.