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Fed Decision Market Watch/Fed Decision Watch

December hike rows near 70%; little change since Friday evening

The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28. The next scheduled decision is December 9, 2026.

Kalshi · December

70% Hike 25bps; 30% Fed maintains rate; 3% Hike >25bps.

KXFEDDECISION-26DEC Chance headings, accessed about 13:37 UTC October 31. Hike was 69% at the October 30 19:06 UTC check.

Polymarket · December

71% 25 bps increase; 28% No change; 2% 50+ bps increase.

Named event rows, accessed about 13:37 UTC October 31. Hike was 70% at the prior evening check.

CME FedWatch

Live December grid and quote time unavailable in the accessible page.

Futures-implied method, distinct from event contracts.

What changed: Each separate hike display rose one percentage point between page checks. These are not quote times; the cause is unknown.
Kalshi December hike Chance heading rose from 69% at the October 30 19:06 UTC check to 70% at the October 31 13:37 UTC check; Polymarket’s separate named row rose from 70% to 71%. Access times are not quote times.
Kalshi and Polymarket December event pages accessed October 30–31, 2026. Separate rounded displays.

BLS compensation costs rose 0.8% in the quarter through September; that October 30 release does not establish why a contract changed. Next official data: September job openings on November 3 at 15:00 UTC. Read the dated source note.

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