Research note · September 23, 2026 · 19:04 UTC
October hike rows rise 15 points on Kalshi and 14 points on Polymarket
At 19:04 UTC on September 23, the direct Kalshi October event page displayed 66% for “Hike 25bps,” 32% for “Fed maintains rate,” and 2% for “Hike >25bps.” The direct Polymarket October contract displayed 68% for a 25 bp increase and 33% for no change. Compared with the pool’s 13:37 UTC check, the named 25 bp-hike rows rose 15 and 14 percentage points. These are separate event-contract readings, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.
The leaders widened on both pages
Kalshi’s named hike lead over maintain rate widened from 4 to 34 points. Polymarket’s named hike lead over no change widened from 8 to 35 points. Kalshi still indicated two hidden outcomes. Polymarket displayed smaller outcomes separately, and its displayed rows can be rounded. The pool does not derive a full distribution.
The access gap does not explain the repricing
The comparison is between two pool access times, not a continuous price record. The pool did not observe the transactions, did not capture a price immediately around an official release, and cannot attribute the movement to an event, Fed communication, or economic result.
The settlement scope remains one October decision
Polymarket’s rules define the outcome by the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range and name the October FOMC statement as the resolution source. Kalshi’s page uses named outcome headings. These rows concern the October decision, not the full year-end path or a separate asset forecast.
CME remains a separate, unfilled comparison
CME FedWatch describes its figures as probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its direct live October outcome grid was not readable in this check. The pool therefore does not report a current CME percentage or calculate a cross-venue spread.
Next official time
The BEA release notice schedules U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position for the second quarter of 2026 on September 24 at 08:30 ET. This is a future information time, not an explanation for the current contract rows.